On 02 April, the State of Southeast Asia Survey Report 2024, published by ISEAS, continues to monitor the views and perceptions of Southeast Asian countries on global geopolitical developments and the effects of it, in the response and outlook. The survey was conducted from 03 January 2024 to 23 February 2024. A total of 1,994 respondents from all 10 Southeast Asian countries took part in the survey. The respondents were categorized into five types: academic researchers, private sector representatives, civil society or NGO, government officials, and regional or international organizational personnel.

 1. ASEAN countries view China as the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia
59.5 per cent of the respondents view China remains one of the most influential economic powers in Southeast Asia. The report mentions China as the top investor compared to other countries in the region. Despite its declining influence, 59 per cent of the respondents view the increasing economic influence of ASEAN in the region. Around 52 per cent of the respondents view the US as the third most influential economic power in the region. According to Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, ASEAN countries have a different stance on US-China relations and have maintained close economic ties with China. Also, it prefers to maintain trade and investment ties with China for development while dealing with the US through defence partnerships against China’s aggressive expansion. Furthermore, China remains the prominent choice in the ongoing US-China rivalry by 43.9 per cent in 2024, which is more than 41.5 per cent in 2023 due to its vast possession of economic resources and strong political will for global leadership. Around 46.9 per cent of the respondents distrusted the US because of its distraction with its internal affairs and its inability to address global issues. 

2. The Taiwan Strait conflict would exacerbate economic concerns in Southeast Asia
44.2 per cent of respondents are primarily concerned about the economic implications of the conflict between China & Taiwan. 59 per cent of the respondent’s fear supply chain disruption due to close geographical proximity and greater regional integration of markets between the three states. 15 per cent of the respondents believe that the conflict would create a repatriation crisis for 700,000 Southeast Asian migrant workers in Taiwan. Most respondents (45.1 per cent) advocate for the non-use of force and the use of diplomatic negotiations between the two sides, which is the preferred position for many ASEAN countries. At the same time, 36.5 per cent expressed their support for a neutral stance. 

3. The Israel-Hamas conflict impacts domestic and regional security in Southeast Asia
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has significantly impacted the domestic politics in the region. Despite the conflict zone being located far from the region, it has influenced diverse groups. The survey reported that 29.7 per cent of the respondents are concerned about the conflict being catalyzed into the rise of extremist activities, thereby impacting domestic and regional security. Respondents from countries like Singapore, Cambodia, and the Philippines share this perspective by 41 per cent, 39.2 per cent, and 37.7 per cent, respectively. Singapore and the Philippines, Hamas as a terrorist group, while countries like Cambodia condemn the violence against civilians. Also, the second cause of concern is the diminishing trust in international law and rules-based order by 27.5 per cent particularly in countries like Indonesia (47.5 per cent) and Malaysia (34.7 per cent). A small proportion of respondents (17.5 per cent) believe that the ongoing conflict will threaten social cohesion due to religious divisions, while some Muslim-majority countries like Malaysia (15.1 per cent), Indonesia (15.1 per cent), and Brunei (10.4 per cent) view it as a cause for social unity. Furthermore, 43.1 per cent of the ASEAN respondents view the government’s neutral position on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

4. ASEAN is unsure about the effectiveness of US-led IPEF
Since the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Forum (IPEF) in May 2022, the report highlighted the decline in positive sentiments about IPEF from 46.5 per cent in 2023 to 40.4 per cent in 2024, while 44.8 per cent of the respondents were unsure about the IPEF’s impact and effectiveness. Countries like Vietnam (64 per cent) and the Philippines (62.8 per cent) are highly favourable to IPEF. Countries like Brunei (58.4 per cent), Laos (56.9 per cent), Malaysia (52.4 per cent), and Myanmar (51.9 per cent) are uncertain about the impact and effectiveness of IPEF. Brunei and Indonesia show negative views on IPEF by 26 per cent and 25.7 per cent, respectively. Around 30 per cent of the respondents believe that the IPEF can complement ASEAN’s initiatives on trade and investment capacities and improve external relations. Also, 27.3 per cent of the respondents see IPEF as a potential source of benefit for the entire ASEAN. 45.8 per cent of the respondents negatively see IPEF due to its lack of market access and the additional burden of adjustment and compliance costs. 15 per cent of the respondents believed that IPEF might complicate ASEAN countries' relations with China while the impact of US-China relations has decreased. Also, 32.6 per cent of the respondents are unsure about IPEF mainly due to fears of China’s potential retaliation.

5. Japan remains the most trusted major power in the region|
Japan remains one of the most trusted countries in the region, with a trust level of 58.9 per cent, which is 4.4 per cent higher than in 2023. It is seen higher in Cambodia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. The positive perception is due to its image as a significant stakeholder that respects and promotes international law. Also, many respondents believe that Japan has vast economic resources that provide quality outcomes regarding investments and job creation in many ASEAN countries. On the other hand, around 50.1 per cent of the respondents have little to no confidence in China for its right actions toward global peace, security, prosperity, and governance. Around 45.5 per cent of the respondents believe that China’s military and economic power can be a threat to other countries' sovereignty, especially the Philippines (65.4 per cent), Vietnam (64.6 per cent), and Myanmar (51.6 per cent).

References:
Seah, S. et al., “The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report,” ISEAS, 02 April 2024
Koh Ewe, “Is Southeast Asia Leaning More Toward China? New Survey Shows Mixed Results,” TIME, 02 April 2024